The UK General Election 2017

I’ve have watched a great deal of the election coverage and can’t help but feel that predicting the outcome of the result of these things has become almost impossible – yet, I’ll try.

I think the Tories, at the every least, are in for a shock: I think they will do well to hold onto what they have. Of course, I could be wrong and they could win by a landslide but with things so unpredictable it’s probably wiser to go on instinct – to draw inspiration from the ether so to speak.

Labour have done something dramatic: they’ve excited the public. The crowds Corbyn has drawn are remarkable and so different from the threadbare attendance at Theresa’s meetings where it seems the Prime Minister struggles to fill a room. Does this mean Labour will win? Not necessarily. But it could mean that they’re are not in for the drubbing the Tories were hoping for. The media is still predicting a Tory majority, but I think they’re wrong. They have been wrong before. The media could be wrong again come Friday the 9th because of the unknown quantity that is: the young vote.

The young had Europe torn away from them by the older vote: this is their chance for revenge.

While Labour, quite rightly, has had some stiff examination of their policies, they have ultimately shone under the scrutiny. The Labour Party has shown warmth, grit and heart. What is surprising is just how hollow Tory policy is. I’ve never seen a party in a general election with so little substance and imagination. They have recognised this and are trying to say as little as possible about it, and that may be wise because when they announce anything new they do a U-turn on it. Why some of the electorate cannot see through this sham, should they win or not, is beyond me. Soundbites are NOT policy.

I suggest that what will happen will be a hung parliament. If that happens it will be a shock to the Pound, the media will fly into a frenzy, stocks will fall, Brexit will be in turmoil: and then the nation will get over it. I don’t think there will be a ‘Coalition of Chaos’ as the Tories would have us all think. After watching all the debates I think I see a ‘Coalition of Consensus’. What has emerged over time is that the opposition in all it’s colours, except for Ukip, are broadly agreeing on the same things. I think a grand coalition could be quite a tasty cocktail: 3 parts Labour, 2 parts SNP, 1 part Lib Dems, 1/4 part Green Party, with a dash of Ukip (for every interesting cocktail needs some bitters).

To say Labour will win outright would seem, even at this stage, too extraordinary – but the world has Trump, so who really knows?

If the Tories do win, then It will be very disappointing because they would have won on soundbites and slogans, and in quite a few cases blatant lies. I hope and think it true, that the electorate is looking under the bonnet. The Tory campaign, as in so many other years, is so negative. But marks this campaign out for extra critique is that it’s been so lacklustre and disingenuous. Theresa has become exposed on her record, and I don’t think offering to carve up human rights to rectify her failed choices is what the public want.

So, what happens?  Anyone’s guess really.

  1. I think there will be at best for the Tories a return to government but with a reduced majority: in which case Theresa is toast.
  2. A Tory minority government: Theresa is toast.
  3. Hung Parliament: Theresa is toast.
  4. A Labour win: the Tories are toast.

This election has proved to be a very high-risk strategy for the government and could prove to be a huge miscalculation. If the Tories lose then they would have achieved the very opposite of what they say their aims were: strong leadership and stability. They’ll become a national laughing stock and could struggle for future credibility from a relatively strong position. I can’t help but think that although Cameron and Osbourn would shake their heads, I suspect there will be a quiet clink of glasses filled with Prosecco in a gentlemen’s club somewhere.

I think the electorate at large has tired of austerity, certainly the idea of five more years of it on the backdrop of Brext – and all its unknowns – is unbearable. Life will become unbearable. What will happen to security? The Tories plan more cuts, and as for the NHS: it could be traumatic.

Maybe, just maybe, fragile hope will win?

I’m praying for an Earthquake.

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